According to Susan Yoshihara, Ph.D., writing for the Catholic Family and Human Rights Institute, the government has confirmed a report published in early August by China's largest news agency, Xinhua, intimating that a major shift in family policy was about to be made in that nation.
"The current policy restricts couples in most of the country to get permission for a second child only if neither has a sibling. In the future, only one parent would have to be an only child to qualify. After two years, the whole country would shift to a two-child policy," Yoshihara reports.
An earlier article appearing in the Telegraph reports that Chinese Premier Li Keqiang is said to view the draconian one-child policy as an anachronism, especially at a time when China is facing a demographic crisis within its devastated population. An estimated 336 million Chinese have been exterminated through abortion and another 222 million have been sterilized. This has resulted in a rapidly aging population where there are only five workers for every pensioner. This ratio is expected to fall to two by 2035.
But will this change in policy do anything to improve the situation within China?
Probably not, says Yoshihara.
"A recent Deutsche Bank report projected the new plan may lead to a baby boom, but would be too little too late to avert economic crises such as the country's massive pension deficit," she reports.
While the nation's fertility rate is projected to increase from 1.45 to 1.66 under the new policy, these increases are still well below the replacement rate of about 2.1 children per woman.
The change in policy is being attributed to "the receding influence of the old guard and some bureaucratic reform within the Chinese family planning establishment," Yoshihara explains. "The main driver, most agree, is Beijing's recognition of a looming demographic crisis owing to precipitous fertility decline."
But the numbers are just one small part of the problem that has arisen since the onset of this brutal policy in 1971.
"A rising callousness toward children and family has been attributed to the policy," Yoshihara reports.
"Each year thousands of children are abandoned, and thousands more thought to be kidnapped and sold. So many abandoned babies die that the government set up 'cottages' where parents can leave their children, mostly baby girls. On September 4, Time Magazine reported that police arrested traffickers of 10 children only to find out their parents didn't want their children back. The parents had sold them to the gang for much-needed cash."
Unfortunately, in the selected cities where Chinese officials launched the new rules, couples have not responded by having more than one child, she reports.
"This indicates norms have shifted toward very small families. National surveys indicate 40-50 percent of couples would like two children. But most were conducted before the economy soured. Rising costs of living and its fallout, such as separations to look for work, as well as rising infertility due to pollution and poor living conditions are blamed."
As Yoshihara's article clearly details, China's sudden change of heart is simply too little - and coming much too late - to make any real difference in the crisis that is about to unfold in that country.
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